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E
merging markets are the next big thing in the midst of
a perfect storm of compelling long-term macro drivers:
strong economic and population growth, electrification
of transport and industrial systems, high rates of urbanisation,
energy market reforms, and the policy push towards cleaner
energy sources. As global economic growth shifts to Asia,
Africa and South America, billions of people will move up the
economic ladder to middle income brackets. An estimated
5.2 billion people will be living in urban centres in emerging
markets by 2050.
A huge energy demand tsunami is building. Macro trends
together with localised country characteristics are opening up
brand new customer markets. Driven by increased consumption
from the transport and industrial sectors, together with upstream
gas production declines, Southeast Asia is a huge commercial
opportunity. LNG demand could exceed 25 million tpy by 2025.
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For countries seeking to secure supply of clean energy to fuel
their growing economies, LNG is the panacea.
The rapid development of LNG in India shows how
customer dynamics are shifting. Demand growth in LNG’s
traditional markets – Japan and South Korea – is flatlining, with
emerging markets picking up the slack.
Where exactly are these new customer markets? It starts
with China and India. These two economic titans are fast
becoming the Jupiter and Saturn of the LNG universe. Both
have ambitious targets to increase the share of gas in their
national energy mix, driven by clean energy policies and the
need to secure reliable supply of energy to support their
economic growth. Their stories have been playing out for years
and are well reported on. This article will focus on the next
group of countries, outside India and China, that are driving the
LNG industry forward.
Future LNG demand catalysts
Vietnam
Vietnam is an energy-intensive, high growth emerging market
looking for security and diversity of energy supply.
Electricity demand is growing 10% annually, outpacing
economic growth thanks to the rapid growth of air conditioners
Bernadette Cullinane and Nye Hill, Deloitte,
Australia,
discuss the growing importance of
emerging markets in the global LNG industry.
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